Agent Autonomy Approach to Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure Modeling of Complex Dynamic Systems with interacting Failure Mechanisms

Title of Document: AGENT AUTONOMY APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC PHYSICS-OF-FAILURE MODELING OF COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WITH INTERACTING FAILURE MECHANISMS Katherine Emily Gromek, Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Reliability Engineering 2015 Directed By: Professor Mohammad Modarres, Department of Mechanical Engineering A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The “agent autonomy” concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent’s ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. AGENT AUTONOMY APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC PHYSICS-OFFAILURE MODELING OF COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WITH INTERACTING FAILURE MECHANISMS